How Will the Presidential Election Affect Real Estate

Dated: September 7 2020

Views: 98

How Will the Presidential Election Impact Real Estate?

How Will the Presidential Election Impact Real Estate? | MyKCM

The year 2020 will be remembered as one of the most challenging times of our lives. A worldwide pandemic, a recession causing historic unemployment, and a level of social unrest perhaps never seen before have all changed the way we live. Only the real estate market seems to be unaffected, as a new forecast projects there may be more homes purchased this year than last year.

As we come to the end of this tumultuous year, we’re preparing for perhaps the most contentious presidential election of the century. Today, it’s important to look at the impact past presidential election years have had on the real estate market.

Is there a drop-off in home sales during a presidential election year?

BTIG, a research and analysis company, looked at new home sales from 1963 through 2019 in their report titled One House, Two House, Red House, Blue House. They noted that in non-presidential years, there is a -9.8% decrease in November compared to October. This is the normal seasonality of the market, with a slowdown in activity that’s usually seen in fall and winter.

However, it also revealed that in presidential election years, the typical drop increases to -15%. The report explains why:

“This may indicate that potential homebuyers may become more cautious in the face of national election uncertainty.”

Are those sales lost forever?

No. BTIG determined:

“This caution is temporary, and ultimately results in deferred sales, as the economy, jobs, interest rates and consumer confidence all have far more meaningful roles in the home purchase decision than a Presidential election result in the months that follow.”

In a separate study done by Meyers Research & Zonda, Ali Wolf, Chief Economist, agrees that those purchases are just delayed until after the election:

“History suggests that the slowdown is largely concentrated in the month of November. In fact, the year after a presidential election is the best of the four-year cycle. This suggests that demand for new housing is not lost because of election uncertainty, rather it gets pushed out to the following year.”

Will it matter who is elected?

To some degree, but not in the overall number of home sales. As mentioned above, consumer confidence plays a significant role in a family’s desire to buy a home. How may consumer confidence impact the housing market post-election? The BTIG report covered that as well:

“A change in administration might benefit trailing blue county housing dynamics. The re-election of President Trump could continue to propel red county outperformance.”

Again, overall sales should not be impacted in a significant way.

Bottom Line

If mortgage rates remain near all-time lows, the economy continues to recover, and unemployment continues to decrease, the real estate market should remain strong up to and past the election.

Blog author image

Arna Freedman

Looking for a Pro? Someone who will listen, negotiate and get the home you are looking for with the least amount of stress? I have been successfully working for buyers and sellers in Orange County fo....

Latest Blog Posts

Are Interest Rates Going to Rise? See the Experts' Opinions

Are Interest Rates Expected to Rise Over the Next Year?So far this year, mortgage rates continue to hover around 3%, encouraging many hopeful homebuyers to enter the housing market. However, there

Read More

Patience Pays When You Are Buying A Home This Year

Patience Is the Key to Buying a Home This YearThe question many homebuyers are facing this year is, “Why is it so hard to find a house?” We’re in the ultimate sellers

Read More

How Much Higher are Home Prices Rising?

Is Home Price Appreciation Accelerating Again?At the beginning of the year, industry forecasts called for home price appreciation to slow to about half of the double-digit increase we saw last year.

Read More

Your Tax Return can help you buy a home with only 3% down

Your Tax Refund and Stimulus Savings May Help You Achieve Homeownership This YearIf you’re planning to buy a home this year, saving for a down payment is one of the most important steps in the

Read More